U.S. seaborne imports rose by more than 10% year-over-year in April, but showed signs of slowing in the latter half of the month fueled by concerns over tariffs against China.
According to data released on May 12 by S&P Global Market Intelligence, that slowdown was evident across sectors, with seaborne imports for capital goods growing by just 0.2% in the second half of April, down from the nearly 3% year-over-year growth that was tracked for the entire month. Information technology imports also fell by 4.8% year-over-year in the last two weeks of April, after increasing by 11.3% in March.
In the consumer discretionary goods sector, S&P found that seaborne imports rose by 6.4% between March and April, compared to an average increase between the two months of 22% for 2016-2019, and 11.5% in 2024. During the upcoming period typically known to be the peak shipping season ahead of the back-to-school and holiday rush, S&P warns that this trend "could suggest a pause to shipments within the normal second-quarter scaling-up of shipments."
That comes with a caveat though, following the trade deal agreed to by China and the U.S. to cut reciprocal tariffs by 115% for 90 days starting on May 14. Freight booking platform Freightos predicts that the agreement could lead to "a significant demand rebound in the near term," as shippers rush to restock their inventories before the end of the 90-day pause.
"It is likely we’ll see frontloading restart, meaning an early start and probably an early tapering off of peak season-level volumes this year," Freightos said in a May 12 release, adding that a sudden pick-up in demand could also spark a period of tight capacity, higher shipping costs and delays at ports.
