The World Trade Organization is forecasting a nearly 4% bump, by value, in global trade of goods in 2026, nearly twice what the group had predicted in March.
According to The New York Times, the WTO's optimistic forecast was fueled by more cross-border trade for pricey chips and other technology needed for artificial intelligence build-outs. That's been enough to help offset rising energy prices brought on by the war in Iran, as well as tariffs from the Trump administration.
In an October 8 news conference, WTO deputy director-general Johanna Hill said that the resilience of the world economy has been a "striking feature of the past six months." And although the Iran war has disrupted the global flow of oil and other goods that rely on the Strait of Hormuz, businesses have managed to adapt their supply chains to pull energy from other regions.
However, the WTO also noted that some regions have been slower to bounce back, particularly in the Middle East, where oil exports were down by 24% year-over-year in the first half of 2026, while LNG exports were down by 47%. At the same time, trade for AI technology was up by 67% in the same period, accounting for roughly half of the global increase in the value of trade in goods.
For next year, the WTO is expecting trade growth to come in at 4.1%, up from its previous forecast of 2.6%, and just under 2025's 4.2% figure.
