Import volume rose 10.0% year-over-year in the first four months but declined During the first half of 2025, U.S. import volumes grew 4.3%, influenced by preloading in anticipation of tariff increases, while export volumes declined by 4.2%. But a closer look shows they rose 10% January-April, then declined 6.2% during May and June, according to Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO, an international association for shipowners. “Import volume growth during the first half reflected changes in tariff rates, with the use of bonded and free zone warehouses allowing some importers to avoid higher tariffs,” Rasmussen said in an August 6 statement.
Overall, volumes at the nine largest U.S. container ports grew by 1.7% year-over-year to 16.9 million TEUs.
The Budget Lab at Yale reported that the effective U.S. tariff rate was 2.4% in January 2025 before subsequent tariff increases raised it to 3.7% in February, 8.9% in March, and 26.0% in April following the “Liberation Day” announcement. Later, reductions and implementation delays brought the effective import tariff rate down to 21.1% in May and 15.7% in June.
U.S. West Coast ports benefitted most from preloading early in the year and saw a 14.4% year-over-year increase in import volumes during the first four months. However, the ports also suffered most from the subsequent volume correction as volumes declined 9.2% year-over-year in May and June combined.
Despite the gains in the first half of 2025, total import volumes remained below 2021 and 2022 H1 levels when volumes peaked during the COVID pandemic, BIMCO said.
Although only China and Canada implemented tariffs in response to U.S. actions, export volumes from the nine largest U.S. container ports decreased by 4.2% year-over-year in the first half of the year.
This decrease is part of an ongoing trend, as export volumes have fallen each year since 2018, except for a 7.4% increase in the first half of 2024. Export volumes during the first half of 2025 therefore ended 12.5% lower than in 2018.
Despite some new trade agreements, the average effective U.S. tariff rate on August 1 is estimated at 17.6%, about two percentage points higher than in June when imports fell 5.8% year-over-year. Concurrently, average spot freight rates from Shanghai to the U.S. (SCFI) have dropped over 60% since early June. This is indicative of continued import weakness during the third quarter which could extend into the rest of the year, Rasmussen said.
