Container Overcapacity to Accelerate as Cargo Demand Dips. Forecast Finds

Ocean carriers face a growing capacity glut in 2012, especially on the key Asia-Europe route, as ship deliveries accelerate from last year while cargo demand weakens over the coming 12 months, Alphaliner forecast.

The global container ship fleet is set to grow 8.3 percent, or 1.28 million 20-foot equivalent units, this year. The growth will outpace the 7.9-percent expansion in 2011, when shipyards delivered 127 vessels of 1.23 million TEUs, the container market analyst said.

The growth in demand, by contrast, is forecast to slow to 6.5 percent in 2012 from an estimated 7.7 percent in 2011.

Some 253 container ships of 1.47 million TEUs are due for delivery in 2012, but this likely will drop to around 228 vessels of 1.39 million TEUs after allowing for delivery slippage. A further 120,000 TEUs of capacity is expected to be scrapped, according to Alphaliner.

Almost half of the ships slated for delivery in 2012 are above 10,000 TEUs, most of which are earmarked for deployment on Asia-Europe routes.

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