Aggregate logistics costs have been rising significantly since the beginning of the U.S.-Israel war on Iran, according to the August Logistics Manager’s Index report from a group of five academic researchers.
“When we really see aggregate costs takeoff is after the start of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran in March 2026,” the report said, noting that the conflict started in the last week of February, so readings begin to stream in in March.
Aggregate logistics costs from March to August in 2026 average 241.9, which is a “statistically significant step up.” Generally, aggregate costs exceeding 240.0 have led to increased levels of supply-driven inflation. The San Francisco Federal Reserve’s breakout of the sources of inflation points to increased supply-driven inflation (outstripping inflation from demand) in July, the report’s authors said.
The aggregate logistics costs figure is an aggregation of inventory costs, warehousing prices, and transportation costs and runs on a scale from 0-300 with 150 being “breakeven” level.
Generally, the LMI indicated that growth is accelerating in inventory costs, warehousing capacity, transportation utilization and transportation prices. Growth is slowing, on the other hand, in inventory levels, warehousing utilization, and warehousing prices, and transportation capacity is contracting.
The LMI is a joint project between researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, University of Nevada, Reno, Florida Atlantic University, and Rutgers University, supported by CSCMP. It is authored by Zac Rogers Ph.D., Steven Carnovale Ph.D., Shen Yeniyurt Ph.D., Ron Lembke Ph.D., and Dale Rogers Ph.D.
