Following a chaotic year marked by tariffs, geopolitical instability and persistent supply chain disruptions, 2026 is shaping up to be more of the same for global manufacturers and logistics operators.
"The uncertainty is here to stay for the next year," said Economist Intelligence Unit chief economist Constance Hunter, during a December 16 briefing with the Port of Los Angeles.
Hunter highlighted several factors that could lead to challenges for global economies in the coming year, including an upcoming U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the legality of President Donald Trump's tariff policies, ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and continued tensions between China and Taiwan that could come to a head at any moment.
Freight intelligence platform Xeneta shared similar concerns in its "2026 Ocean Outlook" report, warning that "the lights on the geopolitical dashboard are still flashing red." Those flashpoints have the potential to disrupt major trade lanes from the Middle East to the Taiwan Strait with little warning, Xeneta noted, which could force shippers to plan for sudden rerouting, longer transit times and higher costs.
Others have pointed to concerns over upcoming USMCA negotiations scheduled for July 2026, with the Center for Strategic and International Studies calling the talks "a defining test for North American cohesion and global competitiveness." Although Canada and Mexico had initially anticipated the 2026 review to largely be procedural, the Trump administration has made it clear that it intends to take a hard look at all aspects of the trade deal. Should the U.S. push for broad changes to the USMCA, it could inject fresh uncertainty into North American supply chains that have already been juggling tariff costs, shifting trade rules and an increasingly unpredictable policy environment.
Given all that, supply chain leaders are entering the new year focused less on returning to a state of stability, and more on managing volatility as a constant.
"2026 marks a turning point where supply chains are not just reacting to disruption — they’re anticipating it," said Materials Handling Institute CEO John Paxton in the group's "Top Supply Chain Trends of 2026" report, with firms expected to double down on the search for tech-savvy supply chain professionals, as well as artificial intelligence systems capable of providing complex scenario planning and predictive analytics.
At the Port of Los Angeles, executive director Gene Seroka said that he doesn't expect cargo volumes to fall off dramatically in 2026, and predicts single-digit declines on the import side compared to 2025, "mainly because you've still got some pretty high inventories throughout the nation." Seroka also expects White House trade policies to stabilize to some degree with midterm elections looming in the fall, although there are still concerns related to U.S. consumer sentiment, which the University of Michigan described as "broadly somber" in its December 5 consumer survey.
"That's a really important part of the overall look at port business next year, in addition to the nationwide conversation on affordability," Seroka said. "But, nobody is canceling a lot of purchase orders right now, so I'm still feeling OK overall."
