The number of people facing acute levels of hunger could reach record levels by the end of the year if the Iran war continues to disrupt global economies.
According to an analysis from the UN World Food Programme (WFP), nearly 45 million more people could fall into acute food insecurity or worse if the conflict doesn't end by the middle of the year, and if average oil prices stay above $100 a barrel. That would be in addition to the 318 million people who are already food insecure.
“If this conflict continues, it will send shockwaves across the globe, and families who already cannot afford their next meal will be hit the hardest," said WFP Deputy Executive Director Carl Skau. "Without an adequately funded humanitarian response, it could spell catastrophe for millions already on the edge."
The WFP points to how the conflict has effectively halted the vast majority of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, creating downstream impacts on the price of energy, fuel and fertilizer, with outsized effects on the world's most vulnerable populations. And as the WFP notes, energy and food markets are "tightly correlated," meaning that any dramatic changes to oil prices can easily ripple through food supply chains.
Read More: Iran War Threatens Global Food Supply Chains
Moving forward, the WFP is projecting a 21% increase in food insecurity for those in West and Central Africa, a 17% increase for East and Southern Africa, and a 24% increase in Asia. In Somalia, the price of essential commodities has risen by 20% since the start of the Iran war. Sudan also imports 80% of its wheat, which farmers have been planting less of in response to ballooning fertilizer prices.
Speaking at a press briefing in late March, UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Chief Economist Máximo Torero warned that the Iran conflict has created a "systemic shock affecting agrifoods globally." The Gulf region accounts for almost half of global sulfur trade, which is a key ingredient for processing phosphate rock into fertilizers. At the time, the FAO estimated that global fertilizer prices could rise by 15-20% in the first half of 2026, with impacts to farmers and food prices compounding the longer the war drags on.
