Crude oil exports out of the Persian Gulf region have returned to nearly pre-war levels, as countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have found ways to keep shipments moving even with continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
A September 29 note from JPMorgan analysts estimates that around 17.5 million barrels of crude oil are flowing out of the Gulf each day, or 98% of daily totals from before the Iran war. According to Kpler, roughly 40% of oil from Gulf states now leaves without crossing through the Strait of Hormuz, with Saudi Arabia having repaired damage to a vital cross-country pipeline that was attacked by drone attacks in early September.
For the oil that is crossing through the strait, more than 70% is being helped along by a shuttle tanker system that hands off the crude to chartered vessels to move it through more dangerous areas, and then transfers it again to long haul vessels on the other side to carry it to market.
"The volumes have recovered, but through a fundamentally different export system," Kpler explained in a September 30 update.
However, oil prices have yet to come down despite the uptick in Gulf exports. That's because shipping remains costly and vulnerable to attacks, while months of disruptions have depleted oil stockpiles and reduced the market’s ability to absorb further shortages. This is while Gulf exports of refined products like diesel and gasoline have remained below 60% of pre-war levels.
