Peak season isn’t following the old playbook. Historically, it followed a predictable order: Fulfillment volume climbed through November and into December, and returns took over once the rush was done. Operators could focus resources on outbound shipping first, then shift attention to reverse logistics once volume eased.
That sequence no longer holds. Last year, U.S. holiday sales were predicted to surpass $1 trillion for the first time, up 3.7% to 4.2% over the prior year, according to the National Retail Federation. Consumers returned 14% of everything they bought between November 1 and December 31, and close to one in seven of those returns landed in the final six days of December, the same week outbound volume is still running at higher levels than typical.
Earlier shopping windows, longer promotional calendars, faster return initiation and more omnichannel purchasing are compressing what used to be two separate peaks into one. Many facilities are now facing outbound and reverse logistics volume at the same time, in the same building, drawing on the same labor pool. That collision is reshaping how operators need to plan capacity in the weeks ahead.
What Changed, and Why It Matters
Retail promotions now start earlier and run longer, and consumers expect immediate refunds and easy returns. That means returns are being generated while fulfillment operations are still running at full intensity, and networks have less time to recover because volumes stay elevated for longer. The issue isn't necessarily more total volume, but more complexity landing at the same time.
Operationally, that shows up as:
- More inbound congestion at receiving docks already stretched by outbound demand;
- Reduced warehouse flexibility, since space and labor can't be reallocated as easily when both peaks are live at once;
- Increased competition for labor, at a moment when there's less of it to go around. In 2025, seasonal retail hiring was on pace for its lowest level since 2009, and warehousing and transportation added fewer seasonal positions than the year before, and
- Greater pressure on transportation networks moving outbound and reverse volume through the same carrier capacity.
When fulfillment and returns compete for the same resources, the strain shows up in a few consistent places:
- Warehouse space. Returns inventory occupies space that would normally support outbound operations, and that trade-off gets tighter every week volumes stay elevated.
- Labor. Staffing models built around historical return curves can leave processing teams under-resourced once that curve shifts earlier. Facilities increasingly need labor that can move between functions throughout the day, which makes cross-training more valuable than maximizing specialization in any single role.
- Throughput. Temporary bottlenecks in receiving and inspection can quickly impact throughput. What starts as a small backlog at receiving can cascade through the operation, delaying inspection, slowing put-away and ultimately reducing the available space needed to support outbound activity.
- Equipment, dock capacity and transportation capacity. All three get pulled in two directions simultaneously, and none of them scale as quickly as volume does.
Before Peak Arrives
Forecasting remains essential to operations, but consumer behavior is getting harder to predict. A single promotional event can shift return patterns almost overnight, and weather, economic pressure and changing buying habits can shift expected volumes with little warning.
The challenge is understanding where and when that volume will materialize. A facility may accurately predict overall holiday demand and still find itself overwhelmed if returns arrive earlier than expected, concentrate in specific product categories, or create unexpected pressure on certain functions within the operation. In today's environment, even a relatively accurate forecast can leave operators exposed if they aren't prepared for how volume patterns shift within the network.
That's why operators should build planning ranges rather than rely on a single forecast. Instead of asking, "What volume do we expect?" ask, "What happens if returns arrive 20% higher, earlier or in a different location than planned?" The organizations that perform best during peak are often those that plan for multiple scenarios rather than a single outcome.
Just as importantly, monitor trends weekly, and in some cases daily, rather than relying solely on seasonal assumptions established months earlier. Establish trigger points in advance that drive operational decisions when predefined thresholds are reached. Whether that means activating additional labor, reallocating warehouse space or engaging contingency carrier capacity, predefined responses allow teams to move quickly and decisively rather than react after bottlenecks have already formed.
While these things may require more preparation than what’s been done in the past, there's still time to adjust before the collision hits full force. Some additional ways you can ensure your operations are ready include the following:
Reassess labor flexibility. Review cross-training programs, identify the functions most likely to become bottlenecks and put labor redeployment plans in place before volume spikes, not after.
Identify bottlenecks early. Walk through receiving, check-in, sorting, inspection, put-away and dock operations now, while there's still room to fix what's fragile.
Validate partner capacity. Ask warehouse, carrier, last-mile and processing partners how quickly they can scale, what peak assumptions they're planning against and where their own constraints sit.
Increase operational visibility. Daily throughput tracking, backlog monitoring, labor productivity trends and capacity utilization should all be visible in one place, not scattered across separate reports.
Operators used to choose between lean and efficient or flexible and resilient. That choice doesn't hold up anymore; this environment requires both. Scalable operations need flexibility built in, and networks have to be designed to absorb volatility rather than simply accommodate forecasted volume.
Success depends on rapid decision-making supported by data and visibility. The most successful operators are those that can adapt the fastest when peak conditions evolve.
Peak season is no longer a relay race between fulfillment and returns. Increasingly, the two are running simultaneously. The operators that recognize this shift and plan accordingly won't just survive peak, they'll create a competitive advantage from it.
Kaitlyn Paradise is head of North America operations at ReBound Returns by Reconomy.
