Uber Freight's Q3 Market Update Report shows that fuel prices dropped in July then rebounded to a 2026 high in August, reaching $5.652 the week of August 24 (52.4% higher than the year before). With this volatility, small truckload carriers with tight margins may park trucks and wait for fuel to revert rather than run at a loss.
The report, released September 10, observes that truck freight capacity is not recovering as fast as might be expected in a tight market, and that constantly changing tariffs presents additional challenges and volatility.
“The companies navigating this best don't wait for disruption to show up in the numbers. They pay attention to what's changing around them, make decisions early, and stay flexible as the market evolves,” says Rebecca Tinucci CEO of Uber Freight.
Routing guides broke in the spring as capacity tightened, with tender rejections surging and mini-bid activity spiking. Primary tender acceptance in the Uber Freight network rose from 76% to 78% from July to August, as repriced routing guides began to hold, and the spot market softened with the season, but it remains well below the 90% to 94% seen in the prior three years.
Truckload conditions are settling, with the spillover moving to LTL and intermodal. Van contract rates are up 18% year-on-year, while spot rates have cooled since early July but are up 35.6% YoY. Meanwhile, LTL pricing is at an all-time high (with rate-per-pound reaching 76.5% above the 2018 baseline in Q2), and intermodal rates have increased 10% or more.
Cross-border volumes are holding. Laredo produce exports rose 8% YoY in Q2 and U.S.-MX spot rates remain 8-15% above the pre-conflict mid-February baseline, with critical corridors up to 30%.
With capacity, diesel, and tariff pressures all converging ahead of Q4, Uber Freight recommends locking in baseline capacity, building a surge playbook, and evaluating alternatives now before the heart of peak.
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