Global oil stockpiles have fallen below 7.9 billion barrels for the first time since April 2025, as the war in Iran has continued to strain supplies.
In a report released on August 12, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that inventory buffers for oil have been rapidly depleting, and that the urgency around fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz has increased significantly. Oil prices have also fluctuated wildly, due to "sudden diplomatic pivots" stemming from the stop-and-start nature of ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran, the agency said.
The IEA now expects the global oil market to run a deficit of 1.8 million barrels per day in the third quarter nof 2026, more than double its estimate from just a month ago. That widening shortfall comes as 8.3 million barrels per day of Gulf production remains offline, with renewed hostilities in July and early August stalling efforts to restore supplies.
The IEA's estimates don't include the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which recently fell to under 300 million barrels for the first time since January of 1983. Before the start of the Iran war, the SPR held around 415 million barrels of crude oil, until President Donald Trump ordered the gradual release of 172 million barrels in March to boost supplies following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
